25% of Dems Will Vote for McCain… According to Matt Drudge
There's a link at the very tip top of the Drudge Report this morning to a story on CNSNews.com (which seems to stand for Cybercast News Service News) reporting that a whopping 1 in 4 Democratic voters in Pennsylvania would likely vote for John McCain if their candidate of choice were to lose. Heavy stuff, man…
As Democratic Senators Barack Obama of Illinois and Hillary Clinton of New York slug it out for the nomination, many of their supporters — at least in Pennsylvania, site of the next major primary — aren't committed to the party's ticket in November, according to a Franklin & Marshall College Poll.Among Obama supporters, 20 percent said they would vote for Sen. John McCain of Arizona, the Republican nominee, if Clinton beats their candidate for the nomination. Among Clinton supporters, 19 percent said they would support McCain in November if Obama is the Democratic nominee.
Oh, wow! That's pretty scary for Democrats. It pretty much guarantees a GOP win, based upon this poll that was conducted a few weeks before a big state primary while tempers are really flying high, seven months before the actual general election. There's nothing to be done, as far as I can see. They might as well give up now! Everybody grab a stick and start beating people! This is the end of the Democratic party!!!
Wait a minute… There was something in that first paragraph that seemed kind of off. Can we take another look at that?
As Democratic Senators Barack Obama of Illinois and Hillary Clinton of New York slug it out for the nomination, many of their supporters — at least in Pennsylvania, site of the next major primary — aren't committed to the party's ticket in November, according to a Franklin & Marshall College Poll.
What the fuck is a Franklin & Marshall College Poll? I've been reading a lot of polls these past few months, and I've never seen a Franklin & Marshall College Poll listed in with the bunch ever. This must be a really important one to only be sited so rarely and then have Matt Drudge — in his infinite probity — splash it across the top of his website.
Let's take a closer look at this paragon of polling data (pdf)…
The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted March 11-16, 2008. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College under the direction of the poll�s Director, Dr. G. Terry Madonna, Head Methodologist, Berwood Yost, and Project Manager, Jennifer Harding. Interviews were completed with 464 registered Democrats in Pennsylvania. Telephone numbers for the survey were generated via random digit dialing, and respondents were randomly selected from within each household. The sample error for the entire sample is +/- 4.5percent. Among the 294 likely Democratic voters, the sample error is slightly larger (+/- 5.7 percent). In addition to sampling error, this poll is also subject to other sources of error that could arise, such as questionnaire design, non-response, and the interviewing process itself.
Um… I guess I would prefer a larger sampling set than 294 people if I was gonna predict the downfall of the Democratic in an election cycle when they're heavily favored to take back the White House. If I were the eminent Dr. G. Terry Madonna, I'd maybe consider calling a few more people. I'm pretty sure that I've had days in which I've spoken to close to that number of telemarketers.
But still, I suppose we should assume that anyone from Franklin & Marshall College must know what he's doing. The very fact that I've never heard of it means that it must be an awesome powerhouse of data-collecting might.




The premise that the Democratic nominee will lose because Democrats are attracted to McCain overlooks that Republicans are, for the same reason, repelled by him.
Remember that registered Republicans mostly voted against John McCain. He literally lost New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, and other states, if you only count actual party members.
But most Democrats and independents who crossed over to vote in the Republican primaries voted FOR John McCain. So he was literally nominated by non-Republicans.
John McCain has been on the record, historically, as opposing most Republican and Conservative issues and causes, including:
Now this all may appeal to Democrats, other Liberals, and some independents…but it makes him little better than Hillary, to Conservatives and Republicans.
What's more, he has REVERSED all of those positions, in order to get nominated. This has spawned a whole industry of both Conservatives and Liberals posting video compilations or pages of quotes showing him flip-flopping, or more accurately lying on the above issues, one way and then the other.
NOBODY likes that. He's not handsome and charming enough for his compulsive lying to be overlooked the way Clinton's was.
Republicans and Conservatives are likely to either stay home, write in a protest vote, or vote third party in November.