One of the big things that all the Democrats and media like to get worried about is the seemingly large percentage of Clinton supporters who seem poised to jump ship from the donkey party if — when — Barack Obama wins the nomination.
While I will agree that it makes perfect sense to do something like that. To choose to vote for someone whose values are completely at odds with your own just because some guy had the nerve to run a successful campaign against your candidate of choice. I mean, that's what a smart, thinking, reasonable person would do, right?
However, it seems that there's a long history of voters — on both sides of the aisle — of talking out of their ass during the big primary battles…
It is true that between 25 and 45 percent of Democrats who voted for Clinton have told pollsters that they would vote for John McCain in the fall rather than Obama, but is that threat credible?
There is considerable evidence that some of those voters are letting their emotions do the talking — and following in a long tradition by doing so. According to ABC News' polling unit, in the spring 1992, only 63% of Democrats who voted for someone other than Bill Clinton in the primaries that year said they would vote for Clinton over George H. W. Bush that fall. In 1996, 66% of Republicans who voted for someone other than Bob Dole in the G.O.P. primary said they would support Dole against Clinton that fall. Al Gore suffered the same apparent dropout problem; only 64% of Democrats who voted for his rivals during the primary said they would be there for Gore in the fall…
"People say these things in the heat of a primary," said a midwestern Republican consultant. "By the fall, they have found other things to be angry about. And they come home."
I don't know. I'm still convinced that we should saddle the country with a heavily conservative-weighted Supreme Court for the next several decades just because the historic female candidate who who was forced to deal with overt sexism lost out the historic black candidate who was forced to deal with overt racism.
It's the smart thing to do.
Tags: Al Gore, Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, Bob Dole, George H.W. Bush, Hillary Clinton, John McCain