• 0.6% Chance U.S. Will Tear Itself to Bloody Shreds on Nov. 7

    Super-statistician Nate Silver once again does the math and concludes, once again, that there is a non-zero percent chance for a doomsday scenario — a.k.a. Electoral College tie — between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney

    [S]uppose there is a deterioration in [President Obama's] polls between now and Nov. 6 — or that the polls have overestimated his standing across the board. And so Mr. Obama wins the states where he has at least an 85 percent chance of victory in the forecast, but no others… If you add up the electoral votes in that case, they come out to Obama 269, Romney 269: an exact Electoral College tie…

    Fortunately, such an outcome remains quite unlikely. Of the 25,001 simulations that we ran on Monday, a 269-269 tie came up in 152 model runs, or about 0.6 percent of the time.

    0.6% might not seem like much to worry about, but I submit to you this: What if somebody told you there was a 0.6% chance that the dead would rise from their graves and begin feasting on the flesh of the living? Would you not worry about it then?

    Now, you may say that a zombie apocalypse is somewhat more dangerous than whatever happens to this country on November 7th if there's an Electoral College tie on the 6th. But I say to you: I can outrun a zombie. I don't know if I can say the same thing about Tucker Carlson. He looks wiry. And he looks like a biter.

    Tags: Civil War, Nate Silver, Polls


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