• Is Barack Obama's Firewall Safe?

    If you're not familiar with the term "firewall," you may be tempted to believe that it is a wall that is made out of fire that politicians like Barack Obama erect to keep inter-dimensional beasts from entering our peaceful realm and enslaving all of us.* Unfortunately, it is not. (So, we continue to remain in constant danger of netherworldy attack.)

    What it is in the case of Obama is a couple of states — namely Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa — which the President is expecting to hold, therefore keeping his re-election chances high. The question is: Will the firewall hold?

    According to Mitt Romney's advisers — who, when you think of it, have nothing to gain by lying — the answer is a resounding no

    Romney political director Rich Beeson said Wednesday that the Obama team's electoral firewall — aka, Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin — is "burning."

    "The firewall that I think they talked about was Iowa, Wisconsin,and Ohio," he said on a conference call with reporters to discuss the state of the race. "Right now their firewall is burning."

    When asked to back that summation up, Beeson mostly just throws down smoke bombs and runs off to the campaign bus. But that's just because he's a very busy guy lately.

    So, instead, lets look for council from FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver who, in the absence of Republican gut feelings, is forced to resort to crude numbers and statistics. Pages upon pages of numbers and statistics

    Mr. Romney has few chances to win unless the state polls are systematically wrong.

    I don’t mean for this to sound dismissive; the polling error could quite easily be correlated across the different states, and the national polls are one reason to be suspicious of the state polls.

    But we’re at the point now where Mr. Obama may be a modest favorite even if the national polls are right.

    Ah, but his firewall! Is it holding? Silver does not state explicitly yes or no.

    So, I suppose we can only assume that it is in fact burning up and that Mitt Romney is on the path to a fantastic landslide victory, as flawless prognosticator Dick Morris keeps projecting. (Sorry, Democrats.)

     

    * You'll have to excuse me, but I've been reading a little too much Lovecraft lately. Sorry. I won't make a habit of it.

    Photo by David Greedy/Getty Images News/Getty Images


    Tags: Barack Obama, Electoral College, Iowa, Mitt Romney, Nate Silver, Ohio, Polls, Wisconsin

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