The emerging pundit consensus claims that Barack Obama's victory was driven in large part by extraordinarily high turnout among African Americans and Hispanics. But number crunching by Sean Trende — a conservative who does not believe that math is witchcraft — suggests that the increases in the minority vote were merely in line with population growth.
According to Trende's analysis, which is preliminary pending the final vote count and release of the full exit polls, minorities constituted a relatively high portion of the electorate primarily because fewer white voters participated in 2012 compared to 2008…
Of course, there are an unknown number of ballots outstanding. If we guesstimate the total at 7 million (3 million in California, 1.5 million or so in Oregon and Washington, and another 2.5 million or so spread throughout the country), that would bring the total number of votes cast in 2012 to about 125 million: 5 million votes shy of the number cast four years ago.
With this base line, and armed with the exit-poll data, we can get a pretty good estimate of how many whites, blacks, and Latinos cast ballots in both 2008 and 2012. Assuming the 72/13/10/5 percentage split described above for 2012, that would equate to about 91.6 million votes cast by whites, 16.6 million by blacks, 12.7 million by Latinos, with the balance of 6.3 million votes spread among other groups.
Compare this with 2008, when the numbers were 98.6 million whites, 16.3 million blacks, 11 million Latinos, and 5.9 million from other groups.
This 7 million drop-off is what Trende calls The Case of the Missing White Voters. It sounds like the perfect mystery for the Romney Sons, were they a Hardy Boys-style group of manchild detectives, but Tagg seems reluctant to take the case.
So where did these voters go? Are they already in Obama's FEMA concentration camps, their guns confiscated, their franchise eliminated? Have the New Black Panthers taken to guarding their doors, refusing to let them out? What did you do with the white people, Mr. President?
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Tags: Barack Obama, Hispanic