Many thanks to MSNBC for this live feed of their coverage. If you can't get to a TV or don't have cable, check out the returns right here. And don't forget to follow all the drama on our own LiveBlog.
Tags: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Montana, MSNBC, South Dakota
Join former United States Senate Pages Dylan and Ethan Ris as they bring you the dish on not just the presidential race but all the exciting triumphs and disgraces inside, outside, and below the Beltway!
The Pages will be watching with 'bated breath tonight as the returns come in from Montana and South Dakota! These are the last states to vote in the Democratic primary season, and the nomination will most likely be sealed tonight.
In Montana, Senator Barack Obama is heavily favored to win the crucial Crow Indian vote, riding high as the newest member of the Whistling Water Clan. This, in addition to his strength in the inner-city urban core of Billings, should put him in a strong position to defeat Senator Hillary Clinton.
Meanwhile, Clinton has her sights set on an upset in South Dakota, where Obama has been stung by his own admission that his ears may not fit on Mount Rushmore.
Scenario One: Obama beats Clinton handily in both states. Clinton delivers a concession speech, and gracefully bows out of the race. On Wednesday, she and Obama appear together at a Democratic Unity rally and she offers him her endorsement.
Scenario Two: Obama beats Clinton narrowly in both states. Clinton refuses to deliver any speech at all, but sends word of her exit from the race through surrogates. On Wednesday, she and Obama meet for coffee at a Washington, DC Starbucks and exchange strained pleasantries for 12 minutes until Obama announces that he had fun, but he really has to get going now.
Scenario Three: Obama wins Montana and Clinton wins South Dakota. Obama calls for Clinton to exit the race, citing the need for the Democrats to focus on beating John McCain. Clinton schedules rallies in Ohio and Florida and begins interviewing running mates.
Scenario Four: Clinton wins Montana and Obama wins South Dakota. Same scenario as above, except Sean Hannity loses a bet and has to eat his first-born child.
Scenario Five: Clinton beats Obama in both states. All the remaining uncommitted superdelegates immediately announce their support for Clinton, throwing the outcome of the primary contest into doubt. The result is a brokered Democratic convention in Denver, where confused delegates end up nominating the late Hubert Humphrey for the presidency and Michael Moore as his running mate.
Tags: Barack Obama, Congressional Confidential, Hillary Clinton, Hubert Humphrey, Michael Moore, Montana, Mount Rushmore, Sean Hannity, South Dakota
Today, Democrats in Montana and one of the two Dakotas (I think it's West Dakota) head out to the polls to pretend to make a difference in this never-ending Democratic primary race which — against all common logic — is actually ending tonight!
Yes! You read me right. Today is the very last day of the primary contests. And Senator Barack Obama — whom you may have heard of — stands 39.5 delegates away from the new 2,117 magic number to clinch the nomination.
Between the 31 pledged delegates up for grabs tonight and the 195.5 superdelegates — who, after six months, still haven't received enough information to make up their minds — he should be able to reach his goal this week. Possibly tonight!
Sensing an opportunity to shut down the nominating contest, Obama's campaign advisers said that they were orchestrating an endorsement of Obama by at least eight Senate and House members who had pledged to remain uncommitted until the primaries ended, and that the endorsements would come the moment the South Dakota polls closed on Tuesday night.
Hmmm… I'm no math using guy or something, but doesn't 31 plus 8 equal 39? So, even if he won all the pledged delegates tonight — which he won't — wouldn't still leave him half a delegate beneath the goal?
Maybe he's hoping the country rounds up. Or down. Or sideways. Ugh, math.
Tags: Barack Obama, Montana, South Dakota
Washington is no different from Hollywood — it's full of famous names, ruthless backstabbers, and gossip bloggers willing to grossly exaggerate any anecdote to boost their readership. As former United States Senate Pages, Dylan and Ethan Ris were privy to backroom dealings, power grabs, and scandals that would make even Eliot Spitzer blush. Join the Pages as they get the dish on not just the presidential race but all the exciting triumphs and disgraces inside, outside, and below the Beltway!
Well folks, we Pages would like to thank the good people of West Virginia for keeping the Democratic presidential race alive! From here on out, the campaign boils down to TV advertising as the candidates' final chance to sell themselves to voters. Knowing as much, Congressional Confidential has consulted our sources, weighed the intangibles, and is now ready to reveal our anticipated ad campaigns for each of the remaining states!
Title: "Run for the Roses"
Synopsis: Clinton enters the shot on horseback, wearing a jockey helmet and vest over her horsehair pantsuit. She recaps the Presidential campaign using Kentucky Derby metaphors and pounds a mint julep shot before trotting away.
Music: Dan Fogelberg — "Run for the Roses"
Title: "Summer Reading"
Synopsis: Obama is seen sipping cognac in the Harvard faculty lounge. Setting down his copy of Rene Descartes' Meditations on First Philosophy, he offers a brief contrast of the physical and metaphysical symbolism of American Flag pins.
Music: Feist — "We Shall Overcome"
Synopsis: Clinton is shown operating a chainsaw as she fells a redwood in southern Oregon. Brushing woodchips from her camouflage pantsuit, she recounts the hardships of her third cousin toiling in an Oregon sawmill as a summer job in 1966.
Music: Celine Dion — "Truck Drivin' Man"
Title: "A Long, Strange Trip"
Synopsis: Grainy late-70s footage of Obama hitchhiking in Indonesia. Surrounded by friends from his madrassa, he sports bellbottoms and an Afro. He holds a sign reading “America or bust!” with a Marcel Proust quote scrawled beneath it.
Music: Ozomatli feat. Professor Cornel West — "(If You’re Going To) San Francisco"
Title: "A Little Bit of the Captain in Her"
Synopsis: Clinton swabs the deck of a campaign donor’s yacht. Wearing a banana leaf pantsuit, she describes the executive branch using boat crew metaphors. She takes a giant swig from a liter bottle of Captain Morgan's and approves the message as the shot fades to black.
Music: Van Halen — "I'm The One"
Title: "Footprints in the Sand"
Synopsis: Obama, barefoot and shirtless in ripped jean shorts, walks along the beach as multi-ethnic children frolic in the surf ahead of him. In the distant background, we see a stone-induced splash from a Mike Gravel commercial filming on the same beach.
Music: Yanni – "Age of Aquarius"
Title: "Home on the Range"
Synopsis: Clinton, wearing a rawhide leather pantsuit, stands beside cowboys before a roaring bonfire. She raises a toast to the common man, shotguns a beer, and then dramatically throws her Wellesley College diploma into the flames as the cowboys cheer.
Music: Kid Rock — "Cowboy"
Title: "Nature's Miracle"
Synopsis: Obama stands in attendance at the waterbirth of his daughter. As his nude, submerged wife Michelle shuts her eyes and bears down, Obama bestows Hawaiian leis upon attending guests Cindy Sheehan and Tony Rezko.
Music: Sarah McLaughlin — "Kumbaya"
Title: "My Fellow Americans"
Synopsis: Clinton appears on a movie set depicting the Oval Office. She accepts the Democratic nomination and pledges to appoint Barack Obama to the position of Junior Senator from Illinois. Bill, Chelsea, and Terry McAuliffe assemble at her side and their faces magically morph into a refashioned Mount Rushmore.
Music: Lesley Gore — "It’s My Party"
Title: "A Whole New Me"
Synopsis: Obama is shown in the mirror trying on lipstick, rouge, and women's clothing. He briefly considers a burqa before deciding against it. He is careful to affix an American flag lapel to his outfit by the commercial's end.
Music: James Blunt — "You’re Beautiful"
Tags: Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, Congressional Confidential, Cornel West, Hillary Clinton, Kentucky, Michelle Obama, Mike Gravel, Montana, Oregon, Puerto Rico, South Dakota, Terry McAuliffe, Tony Rezko
With a ~150 pledged delegate deficit and precious few states yet to cast their primary votes, Hillary Clinton is finding that basic math — in addition to the press — is showing an unfair bias against her…
After more than 40 Democratic primaries and caucuses, Obama, the Illinois senator, leads Clinton by more than 800,000 votes. Even if the New York senator wins by more than 20 percentage points tomorrow — a landslide few experts expect — she would still have a hard time catching him.
Clinton needs "blowout numbers," says Peter Fenn, a Democratic consultant who isn't affiliated with either campaign. "The wheels would have to come off the Obama bus, and the engine would have to blow."
Clinton supporters are saying that — if she wants a viable chance at winning superdelegate support — she needs to lead in either pledged delegates or the popular vote when the music stops and all the states (except Michigan and Florida, of course) have found a chair in June.
To earn that split decision, though, Clinton would need a 25-point victory in Pennsylvania, plus 20-point wins in later contests in West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico. Even that scenario assumes Clinton, 60, would break even in Indiana, North Carolina, South Dakota, Montana and Oregon — a prospect that's not at all certain.
"The analogy I would put out there is she has to have a near-perfect game in baseball," says [Chris Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion in Allentown]. "If she squeaks out a couple-point win, the math goes from bad to awful."
Not so, says the Clinton campaign…
Pennsylvania is not about finishing close, Communications Director Howard Wolfson said. "It's about winning."
Somehow, I had a feeling they were going to say that.
Wolfson added that Obama is doing everything he can to win the race, outspending Clinton three to one (overall: $11.2 million to $4.8 million).
"He has gone sharply negative, and he is doing this to knock us out of the race," Wolfson said. "And if he does not win it will again raise very serious questions among voters and superdelegates… that he can win big swing states like Pennsylvania." He added, "If Sen. Obama can't win a big swing state with that enormous spending advantage, just what will it take for him to win a large swing state?"
Flawless, flawless logic indeed.
Tags: Barack Obama, Florida, Hillary Clinton, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, South Dakota, West Virginia