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Nate Silver
  • If You Voted for Barack Obama, You Might Be Stupid

    If I'm kinda late getting this up, it's only because I've been pretty much laughing non-stop and unable to type anything since I first read it earlier this afternoon.

    Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight was invited to interview John Ziegler, former radio talk show host and current man behind the ingenius website (or something), which — through the amazing powers of selective polling (via John Zogby, of course), fairy dust and black bile — makes a undeniable case for the argument that all Barack Obama voters are stupid, uninformed, mentally disabled and 7/12ths black.

    I digress.

    You have to read the interview. No, you have to. This is not a request or a suggestion. You're not allowed not to. Even if you don't care about (or agree with) Ziegler's findings, his manner during the phone interview is spectacular in the scope of its unbridled anger and amazement that anyone could possibly disagree with his one-sided polling techniques.

    For what it's worth, I'd imagine that there were a slightly higher percentage of uninformed Obama voters than McCain voters. Which is not at all to say the same thing as there being more uninformed Obama voters than McCain voters. I'd guess that Obama pulled in more uninformed and informed voters over all.

    And I say this for two reasons, with the first being admittedly very cynical:

    1) I think that all elections are largely won by the guy who manages to pull in more stupid people than the other guy. Let's face it, those are the people who decide elections. That's why television ads tend to work. Because they're aimed directly at the stupid people.

    2) Obama recieved a lot more first-time voters. Of course first time voters are gonna be less-well-informed than longtime voters.

    Unfortunately, Ziegler did not administer his poll to a single McCain voter, so we have no way of how they would have faired under the same conditions.

    To quote Ziegler's own closing argument: "Go fuck yourself."

    Tags: Barack Obama, John McCain, John Ziegler, Nate Silver
  • Election Continues to Hinge on Missouri

    Nearly two weeks after the polls closed, Missouri has yet to be called for John McCain or Barack Obama. Nate Silver boils down the reasons for the networks' reluctance:

    [T]he Obama campaign has every right to a recount if they want one, and the networks aren't presuming to make that judgment for them. There is also a small but tangible chance of a material human error in the vote tabulation.

    Of course the real bottom line here is, this race is far from over. Recent returns still have McCain ahead in Missouri by thousands of votes. And if Missouri goes red, it's all over for Obama.

    I'm of course assuming that Laos will be annexed and awarded 300 electoral votes before the end of the week.

    Tags: Missouri, Nate Silver
  • The Colbert Report: Nate Silver Predicts Barack Obama to Win the Election

    Nate Silver makes his living analyzing baseball, and he's put those prediction techniques to work for the presidential campaign.

    Do his predictions hold any weight?

    Tags: Barack Obama, John McCain, Nate Silver, Stephen Colbert, The Colbert Report