Earlier today, my friends, I wrote about John McCain's startling rise in the polls and the all-but-inevitable inevitability of his victory on Tuesday, my friends.
My friends, I looked at the available data, crunched some numbers, punched some statistics and tore apart some metrics with my bare hands before feasting on their still-beating hearts, my friends. And no matter which way I looked at it, it was clear that John McCain is heading for a win. But some of you, my friends, were left unconvinced, I suspect.
Well, my friends, let's see if this little piece of reasoning from McCain campaign manager Rick Davis can drive the point home, my friends…
Obama is running out of states if you follow out a traditional model. Today, he expanded his buy into North Dakota, Georgia and Arizona in an attempt to widen the playing field and find his 270 Electoral Votes. This is a very tall order and trying to expand into new states in the final hours shows he doesn't have the votes to win.
You see that, my friends? You can't argue with that kind of reasoning. Or you shouldn't, at least.
In case you still don't get it, my friends, allow me, my friends, to spell it out: Barack Obama is closing the the difference in some very red states, including Arizona. If he's doing that, that must mean that he's attempting to win those states. Or, at the very least, willing to win those states.
Why would Barack Obama want to win states that he doesn't think would be helpful to his campaign? It doesn't make sense. So, he must suspect that he's losing.
And, furthermore, Barack Obama can't continue to win states if he wins them all. So, if he stops winning states eventually, that means he's losing. If you're not winning, you must be losing.
So, to sum it all up: The very fact that Barack Obama is beating John McCain means that John McCain is beating Barack Obama.
How, my friends, can you not understand an argument like that?
(via Andrew Sullivan)
Tags: Arizona, Barack Obama, Election Day, Georgia, John McCain, North Dakota
As we push toward November 4, it's time to focus on our nation's Swing States (i.e. the ones who will pick a president for the rest of us based on whoever's negative ad they saw last.) So tough toodles, Texas. Nous sommes désolés, Massachusetts. Let's investigate a state that matters for a change…
North Dakota's Key Players
* Governor John Hoeven, known as "the Charlemagne of North Dakota."
* Sacagawea, a proud North Dakotan who started the grand tradition of getting the hell out of North Dakota, leaving the state with only seven voters.
* ACORN-registered first-time voters from inner-city Bismarck.
* Die-hard Coen Brothers fans who moved to Fargo following the 1996 hit film of the same name.
* Enough Palin-crazed Hockey Moms to fill "The Ralph," the state's largest venue.
* Staff at the Dakota Dinosaur Museum, who would be thrilled if one of their exhibits was elected president.
Predicted Winner: McCain
Both candidates have avoided the state for fear of having to eat the disgusting local cuisine while cameras roll. But without personal connections, Obama is still too foreign to an electorate that usually votes Republican.
Check out more Swing State profiles here!
Tags: Barack Obama, It DO Mean a Thing, John McCain, North Dakota
That's right: North Dakota. That state with lots of snow, lots of sugar beets, and lots of reliably Republican voters. Well, not lots of Republicans per se, but certainly many more than there are Democrats. And Obama has a 45% to 43% lead in the latest poll.
North Dakota had actually once been considered "in play" by the Obama campaign, but they threw in the towel last month. Well, it turns out that they might not even need to actively work for the state's three electoral votes – which, for reference, last went for a Democrat in 1964. This is a state that voted for George W. Bush in 2004 by 63% to 36%.
Another interesting twist on the North Dakota story is that it is the only state that has no voter registration whatsoever. That means that pretty much anyone can show up and vote without any paperwork. But the folks down at ACORN shouldn't get too excited. The precinct election judge is likely to be Norman the school bus driver or Betty from the dry goods store, and they'll be able to spot an outsider from a mile away.
Tags: Indiana, North Dakota, West Virginia
Expect a lot more big speeches about Garrison Keillor and cheese and a lot less kowtowing to "Big Great Expanse of Nothingness."
Barack Obama, who has deployed more than 50 staffers in North Dakota in an attempt to become the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state since 1964, is pulling out.
An Obama spokeswoman, Amy Brundage, confirmed Sunday that the campaign's 11 North Dakota offices are being shut and its staffers dispatched to Minnesota and Wisconsin, where recent polls have shown a tight race between Obama and Republican John McCain.
And so it was that I figured out an angle on Barack Obama pulling out of North Dakota and earned my day's wage.
Tags: Barack Obama, North Dakota